Trump's Tariffs
Trump's Tariffs and the Exodus of the Scientific Community
What Trump means for you and your home, by Ben Procter.
Unless you have buried your head in the sand you will have heard about Trumps Tariffs. Donald Trump’s self-proclaimed “Liberation Day” saw stock markets tank and wiped billions of dollars off the value of companies worldwide. If you have a pension, you will have noticed it too.
Trump’s tariffs and the ensuing trade war with China have led forecasters to reduce their predictions for growth in GDV from 1.5% to around 1%. While it is still expected that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will continue it’s rate cutting agenda inflationary pressures make this less certain.
What is the UK and Oxford Property Outlook?
We’ve come off the back of a bumper Q1 for property with average house prices in Oxford up 5.3% year on year in January 2025. In spite of Stamp Duty Land Tax changes which came into effect on 1st April, average house prices in the UK rose by 1.4% in latest reported figures.
These increases in property prices come on the back of decade-high levels of stock, according to Rightmove, and while the number of sellers coming to market is up 4% annually, demand levels are outstripping this at an increase of 5%, annually.
With prices increasing but more choice for buyers, pricing is more important than ever. For those looking to move to Oxford, houses which are overpriced will stick out and can easily sit on the market for a long while. Choosing the right agent and pricing accurately is more important than ever if you are looking to sell in Oxfordshire.
How has Donald Trump affected the UK and Oxfordshire housing market?
Trump’s Tariffs have already created uncertainty for the global economy. The trade wars and expected negotiations will increase prices of certain goods. These increases will affect consumers in the United States, which as the world's largest economy significantly influences the global economy.
With inflationary pressures increasing globally, and the risk of a global recession now looming, you might be feeling negative. However, with European swap rates dipping slightly, the cost of oil decreasing and experts predicting another Bank of England cut to the base rate in May, mortgage rates have already started to fall. At the time of writing, Coventry building Society are offering a 2 year fixed rate mortgage at 3.89% APR .
Taking everything into consideration there is positivity in the UK housing market. I for one expect 2025 to be a strong year for the housing market and particularly for house sales in Oxford. Pent up demand from previous years has led to a strong pool of buyers in Oxfordshire and another of Donald Trump’s policies since coming to power is helping to boost Oxfordshire.
Trump administration cuts to Biomedical Research Funding
In February, the Trump administration announced huge cuts to funding for biomedical research. These cuts have had a huge impact on the ability for medical researchers to do their work in USA. We have already spoken to a handful of researchers who are moving to Oxford from America to pursue their research. Oxford University has long been at the forefront of scientific research, and with the loss of funding for those in America, it will prove to be a new home for many Americans.
“Led by a world-class faculty of scientists, technologists, policy makers, economists and entrepreneurs, the Ellison Institute of Technology aims to develop and deploy commercially sustainable solutions to solve some of humanity’s most enduring challenges.” The Ellison Institute of Technology was already a big draw for the scientific community, but with the exodus of scientific researchers from America, we will see many of them moving from America to Oxford.
Trumps Tariffs and the Scientific Exodus to Oxford will fuel the Oxfordshire Market
In conclusion, the state of the UK housing market is strong. And with recent policy changes in USA, we expect demand for good family homes in Oxford and South Oxfordshire over the rest of 2025 to be strong. With increased demand for houses, it is imperative to stay ahead of the game, make sure you have everything in place ready to pounce on the right home, and view as many houses off-market as possible.
If you want to know more about our services and how we position our clients to make them the best buyers of the best houses then call us on 01865 553956.